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The 17th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit meeting held in Astana, Kazakhstan, from 8-9 June and attended by eight heads of state (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) together with newly- admitted entrants, India and Pakistan, is a harbinger of good news towards regional connectivity.

SCO was founded in 1995 and was modestly called as 'Shanghai-5.' The prime motive at the time was ensuring border security in dealing with triple evil of 'extremism, terrorism and separatism.' In 2002 at St. Petersburg, Russia, SCO's first two clauses of the 26-clause document lay emphasis, first, on terrorism and secondly, on economic cooperation. Its evolution passed through the first phase of confidence and security building measures (1996-2001); secondly, regional security against 'three evils' of extremism, terrorism and separatism (2001-2004); thirdly, moves towards becoming comprehensive international Organization (2004-2007); fourthly, consolidation phase (2007-2015) and lastly; global opening up by launching mega- projects like OBOR (post-2015...).

The SCO launched accession procedures for Pakistan in July 2015 at the Ufa Summit, Russia. During the Tashkent Summit in Uzbekistan in June 2016 the members signed the Memorandum of Pakistan's and India's Accession to SCO Obligations. Admission of Pakistan and India were pending since 2005, following fulfillment of some conditionalities. While Russia wanted Indian inclusion, China desired that Pakistan should also join as a full member.

On the occasion of recent Summit in Shanghai the Chinese government stated: "We sincerely hope that after their admission ... they [India and Pakistan] will act in strict accordance with the SCO Charter and the Treaty on Long-term Good-neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, work for the shared goal, conduct friendly cooperation, uphold the Shanghai spirit, improve their relations and add fresh impetus to the development of the SCO."

Moreover, the Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson remarked before the Summit that the moot shall provide Pakistan with a forum to effectively implement the agenda of regional connectivity being pursued. It added: "this Summit is a milestone in Pakistan's foreign policy as the country will get full membership of the Organization." Continuing further, it observed that it is an opportunity for regional countries to further bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and Pakistan looked forward to strengthening bilateral and multilateral ties with all SCO member countries.

With additional members lined up in future (Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey) SCO would encompass nearly half of the world's population and almost one-third of global geographical spread - Russia, Europe, Near East, Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. Also, covering nearly a huge population, immense energy resources, nuclear arsenals and large size of armed forces it would emerge an organization with impressive political heft and economic clout. Housing four nuclear powers and holding the observer status in the UN, the EU, OIC, ASEAN, and CIS - the SCO is coming of age as an economic-cum-political-cum security regional organization.

But, notwithstanding pious hopes and aspirations SCO, as a burgeoning organization has had some issues. For instance, both Russia and China are exerting influence in Far East and Central Asia with amalgam of conflict and cooperation. China and Russia are exhibiting assertiveness - China with initiatives like OBOR and SCO and Russia in the ME.

In the initial stage of SCO, many observers were dismissive about it as some termed it the "Nato of Asia". Some even contended that in a sprawling region, too big and diverse, where countries were at odds with one another due to different ideologies, alignments and national interests, cooperation of any kind was at best a pipedream.

SCO has also evolved towards security collaboration although it primarily remains an economic organization. Notwithstanding aspirations and pious hopes as a burgeoning organization it has faced some issues. For instance, both Russia and China are both exerting influence in Far East and Central Asia with amalgam of conflict and cooperation. China and Russia are exhibiting assertiveness - China with initiatives like OBOR and SCO and Russia militarily intervening in the ME.

In terms of security, the organization has developed too, but faces lack of rapid deployment forces, operational headquarters, security narrative and integrated command system. Moreover, differences in outlook and priorities are there. Internal threats are seen more than from outside Nato. Russia is more interested in security dimension of CIS than in economic aspect.

Both Russia and China are exerting influence in Far East and Central Asia with amalgam of conflict and cooperation in the Eurasian region. China and Russia are exhibiting assertiveness - China with initiatives like OBOR and SCO and Russia through military intervention in the ME.

But with the launch of OBOR and CPEC the SCO has been fortified with greater chances of cohesion and cooperation. Nonetheless, like any burgeoning organization, it faces some challenges. Now, SCO is extending itself towards South Asia. At present, Pakistan- India, Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-Iran relations are far from harmonious. The Iran-Saudi tensions, following President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia in a bid to forge an Islamic military alliance and recent flaring of the Qatar crisis have added to the ME woes. As a non-Arab Islamic country Pakistan, is facing the repercussions of the ME conflicts too.

In Asia- Pacific, the US, Japan, Australia and India have disquiet about SCO as they perceive the latter to be working against their interests with China's expanding influence.

On the positive side, however, the June 2017 SCO Summit afforded an opportunity for leaders of Central Asia and South Asia to get together and communicate with each other. Pakistan seemed to enjoy prominence as an 'anchor state' due to CPEC's mega project aimed at regional inter-dependence.

With recent global realignments, India and Pakistan are on good terms with Russia and China. Of course, Pakistan-China relations are more deep, enduring and have past history. Also, Sino-India and Russia-India relations are robust despite some tensions with the former. Pakistan's two immediate neighbours - Iran and Afghanistan - are having positive relations with India.

Insofar as the recent Summit was attended by UN Secretary-General it was accorded both visibility and credibility. Analysts predict that both China and Russia might bring to bear wiser counsel on the newly admitted recalcitrant entrants, viz., Pakistan and India, and subsequently, Iran - if and when admitted to the grouping.

(To be continued)

(The writer is Visiting Faculty at Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad; former Adviser COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad and ex-President, Islamabad Policy Research Institute. Presently, he contributes a bi-monthly Op-Ed column to Shanghai Daily, China)



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