New cotton crop (August 2017/July 2018) sowing started in Sindh a few weeks ago and sowing is now increasing in such southern Sindh regions as Badin and Thatta. However, sowing in Sindh is being carried on at moderate level due to shortage of water. However, water supply in Sindh is increasing gradually.
In the Punjab, earlier restriction on sowing imposed by the government has been vacated and growers can now start planting. Hot weather has set in which will help in sowing but adequate water supply will be needed for full pace of sowing. According to the seed cotton (Kapas/Phutti) arrivals report issued by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) for the current season (2016/2017) upto the 1st of April 2017, nearly 10,725,737 bales arrived into the ginning factories from which the domestic mills picked up 10,168,824 bales. Exporters lifted 202,356 bales and an unsold quantity of 354,557 bales is still lying with the ginners.
The price of ready cotton from both Sindh and Punjab was said to have ranged from Rs 6500 to Rs 7000 per maund in a fairly steady market. Reports from Faisalabad indicated that the price of fine counts of yarns had hitherto been good but they have also lost some ground, while prices of medium counts of yarn have remained low.
Regarding the new crop cotton (2017/2018), projections are not very encouraging. In fact, one observer indicated that it could range from eleven to twelve million bales only (155 Kgs). Members of the Karachi Cotton Brokers' Forum and Members of the Brokers Advisory Committee met at the end of last month and strongly urged the government to allow reopening of the cotton futures trading under the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA). The meeting was chaired by Naseem Usman who said that opening of the cotton futures will be very beneficial to all the sectors of the cotton trade including the growers, Ginners, Cotton Merchants, Exporters and the Textile Millers and will also bring price stability in the cotton market.
On the global economic and financial front, several equity markets around the world are showing large increases in their values following better performance in several economies around the world. Though many economic observers and analysts still remain cautious and careful in believing if this positive turnaround will continue into the future, but the gains appearing in the global economy remain impressive. It is now almost a decade after the Great Recession that such a plausible and positive turnaround appears in the global economy. Such a positive signal which the global economy is displaying may hopefully push the global economy further upwards.
It may be recalled that a palpably improving economy - and hopefully it is so - is progressing against several odds which include dramatic changes in the global political, social, and economic sectors not seen since the end of World War Two. It may seem premature to believe that a positive and lasting improvement is occurring in the global economy, but some credible signs and signals are appearing on the horizon.
Sophia Yan, the Beijing Correspondent of CNBC reported recently that "the bulls are back in China pushing up the stocks for the first quarter of the year on the back of stronger economic data and better than expected corporate earnings".
It has been reported that "Citibank projects that equities are expected to surge five percent by the end of the year as any lingering concerns of any impending economic collapse have diminished in China". According to Larry Hu, this past quarter was a great one for Chinese stocks.
It has also been reported that jobless claims in America have gone down sizeably last week. Fewer applicants for jobs in America clearly indicate that regular job creation has improved the economy in United States. Furthermore, the Eurozone unemployment benefit is reported to be the lowest since 2009. Such a fall in unemployment benefit amounts to an eight year low level in February, 2017. These examples show that credible improvement in the global economy is afoot despite wars in the Middle East, a new administration in the United States, Brexit and now possibly Frexit, and the immigration problem.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017