After the passage of nearly four years in power the incumbent government has called a total of six CCI meetings - one in July 2013, one in May 2014, one in March 2015 however in 2016 three meetings were held - in February, March and December - and the last two dealt with the census. Sadly, a consensus was reached during the March CCI meeting to defer the census. The subsequent court verdict compelled the government to hold the census exercise that is currently ongoing - an exercise that is considered critical for any administration's ability to take informed socio-economic policy decisions. In addition and perhaps the real reason for the constant deferral of holding a census is that a change in demographics can change the number of seats of a province in the national assembly and a change in demographics within one constituency can change the voting strength of a political party. Article 50 (5) of our constitution sets population as the sole criteria for allocation of seats though Musharraf added a table giving the number of seats of each province that was not based on population - an anomaly that disturbingly the comprehensive more than a year long review of the eighteenth constitutional amendment did not correct.
Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) have repeatedly requested a CCI meeting during the current tenure of the Sharif administration to deal with their genuine concerns with respect to 'unfair' decisions taken by autonomous authorities as well as lack of transparency in several executive decisions. An example of the former is Sindh's constant accusations of non-implementation of the landmark 1991 water accord {as specified in Article 155 (1)} - agreed during the Sharif administration's second tenure; and of the latter lack of transparency in the-15 year LNG contract signed with Qatargas. However, their requests have to-date not been entertained which is inexplicable given that the government of the day has a clear majority in the CCI and the constitution clearly stipulates that "the decisions of the Council shall be expressed in terms of the opinion of the majority." In other words with Punjab likely to vote the same way as the Prime Minister the federal government could have its decisions, however inappropriate, simply reinforced by the CCI.
With respect to the 1991 Water Accord, hailed at the time as a landmark achievement, the question is: does the Water Accord continue to satisfy all provinces? In 2009 the then Sindh Irrigation and Power Minister, incumbent Chief Minister Sindh, Murad Ali Shah, wrote a letter to Indus River System Authority (Irsa), stating: "As far as water distribution is concerned, the only thing in vogue is the 1991 Water Accord. The Irsa is a creation of the 1991 accord and the creation cannot alter or violate the accord under which it was created....Any use of historic uses in any form will be a violation of the accord as determined by the Law Division. How can Irsa decide to use any criteria in the absence of decision?" Irsa's response was as follows: "In the absence of any decision by the authority on the issue, it has been decided by Irsa that criteria for Rabi 2009-10 as per practice in vogue may be issued." Murad Ali Shah termed this as "contradictory" prompting Irsa to respond that "in view of the expected pressure, the five Irsa members took a decision not to bow before any pressure."
On 20th March 2017, Murad Ali Shah as the Chief Minister again accused the Centre of creating shortage of water in Sindh which this time around has prompted Irsa to close Trimmu and Punjnad canals after discussions with Punjab aimed at supplying additional water to Sindh and appeasing the provincial government. Sceptics argue that this decision may well be due to the impending Panama verdict.
The success of the last NFC award in 2010 was given to Shahbaz Sharif as Punjab's Chief Minister who agreed to reduce the weightage given to population from 100 percent to 82 percent and give in to the long standing legitimate demand of the smaller provinces by agreeing to the following revised formula: 10.3 percent to poverty, 5 percent to revenue generation/collection, and 2.7 percent to inverse population density. Be that as it may, Punjab's agreement was premised on the clever negotiating skills of the then Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin who ensured that each province, including Punjab, received more from the federal divisible pool than it would have received under the sixth NFC award.
Dar, since he took over the portfolio of finance has, in private discussions that have been leaked, expressed his serious concern over the decline in federal resources from the divisible pool (42.5 percent at present); and given that he is constitutionally barred from reducing the provincial share he reportedly proposed an additional 7 percent outlay by provinces from the divisible pool: 3 percent for setting up a National Security Fund and 4 percent for development of FATA, AJK and Gilgit Baltistan. Dar also reportedly promised an NFC meeting in January and in a spirit of high-handedness that he has been increasingly exhibiting, issued a press release this month that the 2010 NFC award would continue to prevail in the 2017-18 budget.
Sindh, KPK and Balochistan members NFC have expressed their extreme reservations at Dar's disinterest in negotiating the accord and have pointed out some disturbing facts: (i) Dar with Shahbaz Sharif was proposing 60 percent share of the provinces for the seventh NFC award 2010 when the party was in opposition in the centre clearly indicating that Dar changes his priorities based on the position he holds at the time rather than in terms of adhering to a principled stand; (ii) he was requested by the Balochistan member to highlight where the money to be earmarked for the security fund would be spent but instead of doing any homework he on-sent a copy of the presentation during the last NFC meeting held in December 2016 that did not include these particulars; and (iii) the provincial members NFC offered to Dar that they would endorse the seventh award as the ninth award but to begin negotiations on the next one but Dar's disinterest was so acute, as per Member NFC Balochistan Kaisar Bengali, that he opted for the President to pass the necessary order without consultations.
Sadly, Dar has emerged as a Senator/minister who either deliberately or through disinterest is sowing the seeds of discord and conflict between the centre and the federating units. One can only hope that the Prime Minister directs him to desist from this practice but unfortunately the Prime Minister's statements during his third incumbency clearly indicate that according to him Dar can do no wrong.