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Phase one of the census exercise is scheduled to begin on 15 March (envisaged duration one month) with speculation in the capital that it may be postponed due to raised security concerns as a consequence of the recent spike in terror attacks in the country. The army's greater engagement in countrywide operations as well as along the borders with Afghanistan and India may make it impossible to meet the envisaged ratio of 1:1 for enumerator and army jawan. The second phase is scheduled to commence in August.

The enumerators would be from the provincial education departments and the results would be sent directly to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), a federal entity under the administrative control of the Ministry of Finance, which would then tabulate and analyze the data and, as per reports, take an additional two to three years to release its findings to the public.

One would be at pains to identify a political party in Pakistan that proactively supports the holding of a census - a critical procedure for acquiring and recording statistical national demographics. And this in spite of the fact that all party leaders and members are fully cognisant of the fact that a census is necessary to take informed socio-economic decisions/policies.

United Nations Population Fund highlighted the advantages that would accrue from a census: "The unique advantage of the census is that it represents the entire statistical universe, down to the smallest geographical units, of a country or region. Planners need this information for all kinds of development work, including: assessing demographic trends; analysing socio-economic conditions; designing evidence-based poverty-reduction strategies; monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of policies; and tracking progress toward national and internationally agreed development goals." The US Census Bureau notes that a census is used by people from many walks of life "to advocate for causes, rescue disaster victims, prevent diseases, research markets, locate pools of skilled workers and more".

Given these documented advantages of a census why do most political parties in Pakistan express concerns with respect to undertaking a census exercise every ten years? And is this opposition unique to Pakistan? Three major areas of concern are as follows.

First, the US Census Bureau notes that census "information affects the numbers of seats your state occupies in the US House of Representatives". In other words census is inherently political even if economists argue that it is a critical component of formulating strategies/policies and implementing them. The difference in the case of Pakistan is that all administrations, civilian and military, have allowed the census exercise to be subordinated to politics. To-date resistance by those representing the federal government has been largely premised on their concern that demographics may have changed to a degree that it would negatively impact on their voting base in existing constituencies or in a newly formed constituency as a consequence of a rise in population splitting one constituency into two.

Article 51 (5) of the constitution sets population as the sole basis for allocation of seats and while civilian governments opted to keep the status quo by constantly delaying the census either due to concerns within the ruling party or concerns voiced by the coalition partners yet military dictators have been visibly undemocratic. Musharraf added sub-section 3 to Article 51 which consists of a chart allocating a specific number of seats to each province, later sustained by parliament through the 18th Amendment in 2010 - an allocation which is not proportionate to the federating units' share in population. In addition, he favoured one coalition partner, the MQM, by splitting constituencies in urban Sindh.

Second, there is danger of minority groups to be under-represented in a census. "In the United States, city dwellers, the poor, non-English speakers, and ethnic minorities tend to be undercounted relative to the rest of the population. For example, the 1990 census missed an estimated 4.4 percent of African Americans but missed only 0.9 percent of whites. Beginning with the 1970 census, officials representing undercounted populations have claimed that their constituents have suffered loss of political representation and government funding because the apportionment and funding formulae are based on incorrect data. Mayors and leaders of civil rights organisations filed lawsuits to press for adjustment of census results based on statistical sampling... In 1999 the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that population figures adjusted by sampling may not be used for reapportionment, the determination of how many seats each state receives in the House of Representatives. Reapportionment must use population figures based on the traditional head-count method". But the apex court left it open to interpretation whether "states could use the statistically adjusted population figures for redistricting, the redrawing of boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts. The Court's decision also suggested that federal agencies and policymakers could allocate federal funds to state, local, and tribal governments based on the adjusted figures". In Pakistan, the Christian population has been projected as having zero growth which is simply inexplicable. In addition, a minority ethnic group, if a coalition partner of the ruling party either in the centre or a province, has derailed the holding of a census. And the vulnerable continue to be under-stated for political reasons as well as to show flawed data to a prospective multilateral lender.

And finally, there are concerns about the confidentiality of the census which in turn represents a source of data error. The US Census Bureau argues that "censuses require public understanding, support, and co-operation to be successful. Concerns about government interference with private life can prevent people from co-operating with what is essentially a voluntary counting process". Indeed and in Pakistan there is zero faith in the ruling party's intent to hold a fair census - the reason for insistence to hold the census under army supervision. However political parties are also suggesting that the enumerators release their findings not only to the PBS but also to the provinces as a check and balance on the possibility of data manipulation by the Centre. Given the serious challenge posed to data integrity by the Dar-led Finance Ministry during the past three and a quarter years one would urge the government to accept this suggestion.

The mission statement of the US Census Bureau is "To serve as the leading source of quality data about the nation's people and economy. We honour privacy, protect confidentiality, share our expertise globally, and conduct our work openly. We are guided on this mission by scientific objectivity, our strong and capable workforce, our devotion to research-based innovation, and our abiding commitment to our customers". The census bureau's objective is to "provide the best mix of timeliness, relevancy, quality and cost for the data we collect and services we provide".

A contrast with Pakistan can not be more stark! Our census is undertaken under the guidance of a Census Commissioner in the PBS which, as aforementioned, is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Finance. And its timeliness and relevance is disturbingly linked to the political realities of an administration.



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