It is tempting to believe that but for their nuclear capabilities, Pakistan and India would have gone for a war by now. It is a kind of nuclear balance between them that tends to work as deterrence against a wider conflict in South Asia. Even at the height of tension between them, as is the case presently, neither has opted for a nuclear option. And whatever is there between them in the form of nuclear CBMs remains in force. Therefore, as per an agreement last month, they exchanged lists of their nuclear facilities, and now they have extended for another five-year their bilateral Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents relating to Nuclear Weapons. The agreement provides for immediate exchange of information between the two countries in the event of an accident relating to nuclear weapons, which can create a risk of radioactive fallout or a risk of outbreak of a nuclear war. In nuclearized ambience both are indeed dreaded scenarios. Recall the case of the Chernobyl explosion of 1987 that sent radioactivity across most of Europe when one of its reactors exploded. Or, the Cold War thriller Fail-Safe which portrays an accidental thermonuclear war after an error sends the US bombers to strike Moscow. In line with the agreement, one of the parties can propose an extension, which in this case was Pakistan, and India responded by according its acceptance. Between the two, there is also an agreement on Pre-Notification of Flight Testing of Ballistic Missiles. Unfortunately, however, India deviated from its commitments by not including the 'secret nuclear city' in the exchanged list; New Delhi also sometimes fails to inform Pakistan about its ballistic missile launches. Yet a kind of nuclear deterrence works between the two nuclear rivals, a reality which does suggest, albeit obliquely, that there is always the possibility of normalising their bilateral relationship. By seeking extension of nuclear risk-reduction agreement, Pakistan has conveyed its intention to stay engaged for strategic stability in South Asia.
The decision by the two nuclear rivals to extend their agreement to keep informed each other in matters of nuclear is timely, in that there is the impression at the international level that if there is going to be the second Hiroshima-Nagasaki it would be in South Asia. Both India and Pakistan have talked of using nuclear weapons in case of a wider conflict. Not only has India threatened - at the ministerial level - to set aside its no-first use commitment, it is also out to nuclearize the Indian Ocean. And to warn India against any misadventure Pakistan has promised retaliation in equal terms, mainly by deploying battlefield-specific tactical nuclear weapons. It is one's hope and wish that as a follow-up of the nuclear risk-reduction agreement the two sides take additional steps not only to ensure safety and security of their nuclear assets but also try defusing tensions between them by resuming the stalled dialogue. And for that the ball is in New Delhi's court. India needs to come clean on the issue of fomenting terrorism in Pakistan. Another front on which it should act is by lowering temperature on the Line of Control in Kashmir. By violating the cease-fire, as CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa said the other day, it is not only an attempt on the part of India to divert world's attention from her atrocities against innocent Kashmiris but also an "attempt to dilute our response against terrorism and militancy." But there is also a possibility of change to this depressing scenario.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017
