For the forthcoming season (2017/2018) in Pakistan traders are optimistic regarding the output for the next season as growers reportedly received better prices for their seed cotton for the outgoing season (2016/2017). In the outgoing season, Sindh province sowing was not so short, but a sizable shortfall was seen in sowing in the Punjab province. It is now projected that cotton sowing in Punjab will go up sizeably during 2017/2018. It is thus estimated that sowing in Sindh may go up by six or seven percent in the forthcoming season (2017/2018), but Punjab output could rise by 15 to 20 percent compared to previous season. Therefore, as an initial projection, sowing in Punjab could rise by 15 to 20 percent. Thus, as an initial projection, the total cotton output in Pakistan during 2017/2018 could be about 12.5 million bales (155 Kgs).
The seed cotton prices in Sindh are said to have ranged from Rs.3300 to Rs.3500 per 40 Kgs on Thursday, as per quality. It may be noted however, that supply of seed cotton is tapering off. In the Punjab, seed cotton prices reportedly ranged from Rs.3300 to Rs.3800 per 40 Kilogrammes.
Lint prices in Sindh were said to have ranged from Rs.6200 to Rs.7000 per maund (37.32 Kgs), while in the Punjab they reportedly extended from Rs.6400 to Rs.7000 per maund in a steady market.
Over the past several weeks, cotton prices have mostly remained firm globally. In Pakistan, due to a largely deficit crop during the current season (2016/2017), cotton prices also remained steady to firm. In line with the rising cotton prices, yarn prices have also risen generally. Good quality of domestic cotton has become scarce so that mills are mostly anxious to buy them.
On the global economic and financial front, most assessments are closely linked with the progress of the formation of the Donald Trump's administration. Observers are finding difficulties in assessing the course President Trump is adopting in providing a plausible or clear cut direction of his presidential policy.
In the formation of the new American administration, there have been a couple of senior level casualties such as those of US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn who resigned last Monday when he reportedly misled senior Trump White House officials regarding his conversations with the Russian Ambassador in Washington. Reports added that he also "inadvertently" gave "incomplete information" to Vice President Mike Pence conveying his phone conversations with Sergey Kislyek, Russian's ambassador to America.
Another casualty in president Trump's proposal is that of Andy Puzder whose nomination as labour secretary has been withdrawn following his admission that he employed an illegal immigrant as a former housekeeper.
There is a perception in the mind of the public that there is a lack of proper management presently obtaining in the White House where a coherent approach to important issues is lacking and several functionaries are apparently working at cross-purposes. Thus several issues, be they diplomatic, political, social or financial, have not yet been thrashed out within the White House with any finality. It is believed, however, that in due course of time President Trump's Chief of Staff Reince Preibus will be able to coordinate and consolidate the various governmental policies, both domestic and foreign, in due course of time.
During his campaigning days and thereafter Donald Trump also attacked, inter alia, the media and the judiciary viciously. Indeed he declared that the American judicial system has broken down. Some observers and analysts believe that White House is in a state of turmoil since the departure of Michael Flynn from President Trump's camp.
The basic fear in the economic circles is that president Trump's erstwhile close relationship with the Russians could impact Russo-American relationship in a delicate dilemma. The fear is that Russia has historically been against such Western alliances as Nato and the European Union. Indeed Russia has been trying to weaken the Western alliances which can possibly destroy the deep economic, fiscal and financial grouping of the free world.
The economic proposal being mooted by the United States to impose an American border tax has alarmed most of the Atlantic community who fear that with the introduction of the border taxes, trade wars could erupt.
In view of the recent developments following the election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States of America, a new economic reorientation will emerge where France, Germany, Belgium and numerous other countries have been caught in the clutches of populism, rightism and individualism which appears poised to create a new socioeconomic order.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017