The usual trend in by-elections favours the party in power. Still, the PML-N governments both in the province and at the centre left nothing to chance. They used every possible means, from material incentives at public expense to governmental clout, to influence the outcome. Even the Prime Minister could not hold himself back from direct involvement in the election campaign. Violating the ECP's code of conduct, he addressed a news conference after the close of campaign time to highlight what he thinks are his government's achievements, and later embarked on a drive-by tour of the constituency. The PTI challenger, Abdul Aleem Khan, tried to make up for what his side lacked in terms of offering governmental largesse by liberally spending his immense personal wealth to woo voters.
By the end of it all, the ruling party candidate managed to win by a margin of mere 2,400 votes while Imran had lost the same seat by nearly nine thousand votes. In other words, Aleem fared better than his party leader- in fact a lot better considering the usual trend in such situations. Let's recall some examples. In NA-1 Peshawar during the May 2013 general elections Imran Khan defeated a senior ANP leader, Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, by 66,000 votes. After he vacated the seat along with NA-71 to retain the Rawalpindi one, Bilour roundly trounced the PTI replacement candidate in the by-election. Similarly in NA-71 Mianwali, Imran had secured 133, 224 votes. Yet in the by-election for the same seat the PTI candidate received only 70,885 votes as against his Nawaz League opponent's 85,836 votes. It is also worthwhile to recall that back in'88, PPP leader Benazir Bhutto while contesting from multiple seats defeated a right wing alliance, IJI, candidate Mian Umer Hayat in NA-94 Lahore (then part of the present-day NA-122) by a wide margin only to see in the follow-up polls her party's Muhammad Rafi lose to Hayat. These examples show the people respond very differently to major political figures and in choosing replacement candidates in by-elections. Imran therefore is not so unjustified in staying stuck to his position vis-à-vis his own showing in the last election.
Nevertheless, all interested must have heaved a sigh of relief on hearing the result. For winning NA-122 could have sent Imran back into agitational mode to claim vindication of his position that the 2013 elections were a fraud and the assemblies produced by them fake, and call for the Prime Minister to to stand down.
The Nawaz Leaguers can ridicule the PTI leader as much as they want with remarks like " this time, there was no Iftikhar Chaudhry; no returning officers from the judiciary; no '35 punctures'; no Nadra; and the process was conducted under the full protection of the Pakistan Army." But inside they have much to worry about. Aside from Aleem giving a tough fight to Ayaz, a modest PTI candidate wrestled away PA-147 under NA-122 from a close relative of the PM. Similarly in Okara, an independent candidate Riazul Haq Juj who was denied the PML-N ticket rubbed the party candidate Ali Arif Chaudhry's nose in the dirt defeating him by a huge margin. PTI too suffered a big embarrassment in Okara for its choice of candidate Ashraf Khan Sohna, a new entrant in the party who was awarded party ticket in preference over old loyalists. Annoyed local party leaders and sympathisers supported Juj. Sohna lost so badly with just 7100 votes that he had to face the ultimate humiliation for any candidate: confiscation of security money. Sadly for it, the PPP's candidates are nowhere in the reckoning. They deserve credit though for bravely entering the contest knowing full well what lay in store for them and yet participating to register the party's presence in the province.
By voting the way they did the people have rejected, aside from the Sharif brothers arrogant style of functioning, two common notions: one, that Lahore belongs to the PML-N; second, that Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif's model of development based on high-cost, flashy schemes like the metro bus, signal-free roads, and fancy roundabouts wins hearts and minds. Lahore, like the rest of Pakistan, belongs to ordinary people who are interested in plans and policies aimed at bringing about qualitative improvement in their lives. More than anything else they need better educational and health care facilities, clean drinking water, jobs, shelter, and of course an efficient rather than a showy public transportation system.
Lahore, indeed majority of Punjab, was a PPP stronghold in the '70s, late '80s and early '90s because of its socio-economic uplift programme. After the party disappointed them, the voters gradually started shifting to the PML-N. Now the signs are of a growing dissatisfaction with the Sharifs as well, and a desire for an alternative which can deliver progress and prosperity to the ruled rather than the rulers. If the next general elections are held in as fair and transparent a manner as the by-elections in Lahore and Okara, we can expect to see results not too different from the ones the voters delivered last Sunday.
[email protected]