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Pakistan's GDP growth has shrunk by almost 2.5 percent and overall loss to assets is hovering around 6-8 percent of GDP, says an official. Pakistan had the target of 4.5 percent of GDP growth this year, after achieving 4.1 percent in 2009-10.

"The loss of cotton crop is 2.9-3.5 million bales, as per recent estimates, while the rice crop has not been accurately assessed as yet, and the crop of sugarcane has also been heavily damaged," an official of the Finance Ministry told Business Recorder.

Cotton crop was estimated at 13 million bales. Two million cattle have also been drifted away causing a heavy loss to the livestock sector. Milk production could be affected. River belts which are largely affected by flood provide better fodder to cattle and high quality milk. Dairy industry, which is almost of half of agriculture sector, is about 12 percent of the GDP.

As per earlier estimates, the Finance Ministry had reckoned almost 1-1.5 percent loss. But as the flood had spread in Sindh and some data from NWFP and Punjab had been compiled this estimates, this is not even the complete data which would now be assessed by World Bank and ADB by October 15. The devastation of flood is still unfolding and main sectors of the economy are really damaged.

Agriculture sector growth was estimated at 4 percent of GDP, out of 4.5 percent of total GDP growth, and the agriculture growth could go into negative growth depending upon the reports which are coming. Agriculture sector accounts for over 21 percent of GDP and employs 45 percent of the labour force in the country. Other losses are of petroleum and water and power and infrastructure sectors. The floods have ploughed a swathe of destruction more than 1,000 km long from northern Pakistan to the south, killing more than 1,600 people and affecting four million people.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2010


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